Making EVs commercially in AU: If not NOW, When?

Open for any sort of non-technical discussion regarding EVs
whimpurinter
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Making EVs commercially in AU: If not NOW, When?

Post by whimpurinter »

Edited 18:42

Johny said:

"Hey - only room for one in here...."


Ooops, Sorry, He pushed me ....
Last edited by whimpurinter on Fri, 17 Feb 2012, 13:42, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by IVI »

Woody (& others working up comparisons of particular petrol vs electric cars' multi-year costings):

For each EV you assume $5,000 to replace the batteries?

I see that as $5,000 you'd/we'd -never- have to pay, eg, in BetterPlace.com's (or any battery-swapping competitor's) business model.

I think Aussies are just going to open their minds to batt.swap.stations.

(Think stage coaches, that needed to swap horses regularly, along lengthy trips. Does it matter "whose" horses pulled you along each leg of your trip? I don't think so.)

A mantra for the blinkered Aussie market might have to be something like:

+ "Unwrap your arms from around your own well-cared-for batteries, & save - time & money - 'cause you won't need to charge 'em or replace 'em."

YMMV.
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Post by weber »

IVI wrote:I see that as $5,000 you'd/we'd -never- have to pay, eg, in BetterPlace.com's (or any battery-swapping competitor's) business model.

I think Aussies are just going to open their minds to batt.swap.stations.

I think you're just not getting it.

1. Someone has to pay for the batteries your vehicle uses, and they sure as hell aint gonna let you use them for free. In fact they have to pay for nearly twice as many batteries under a swapping scenario, and that cost must get passed on to you, along with profit and the rent of storage for them and the labour of swapping them.

2. The only way an EV can use a standard size, shape, mass, mounting points, voltage and BMS-interface battery, is if it is designed around that battery from the ground up. With conversions, you are forced to use whatever shape spaces you are given. And it would be pointless to swap just part of the battery.

3. You hardly ever need to do long trips in an EV, and if you do, a single fixed battery that can be charged rapidly at a roadhouse while you have tea, coffee or a meal, will be far less expensive.

[Edit: Fixed error where everything was in italics]
Last edited by weber on Fri, 17 Feb 2012, 19:31, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Simon »

I think the BP battery swapping is not going to work out cheaper than a fixed battery. The swapping stations are very expensive and require multiples of batteries on hand and fast chargers to top up the depleted packs.
Also there is no choice of vehicle either choose a Renault Fluence.. or a Renault Fluence. Image
In Denmark a Fluence costs €27.496 plus an ongoing cost of €2988 per year for up to 20,000km.
Compared to a Leaf which is €38,964.62 which has no monthly subscription. So after 4 years the Leaf will be ahead assuming the monthly cost stays the same.

Perhaps Better Place is banking on the fact that the majority of cars will only use a swap station once or twice for the novelty. Drivers can then rest assured that if they ever feel the need to spontaneously do a road trip they can!   Image

edit:
Nothing against the Renault Fluence it looks like a nice car. I would buy one if it was $35,000AUD.... but who would you get to jailbreak a car? Hmmm
   Image
Last edited by Simon on Fri, 17 Feb 2012, 21:23, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by whimpurinter »

Edited: 7:35

Hi Simon,


"Nothing against the Renault Fluence it looks like a nice car. I would buy one if it was $35,000AUD.... but who would you get to jailbreak a car? Hmmm"


I noticed your comment about jailbreaking. Can you tell me more about this aspect in regard to the Fluence?

I don't know anything about the Fluence, but having seen the goings-on with the computer industry (root kits, drm) and the dvd industry (regions), I didn't have to be Einstein's half-wit brother to consider what the brand-new big-manufacturer-ev 'might' be like.

New keys for an Avalon $110 each, another 100 to program them. A modern nissan (I think it was), the owner showed me the key, pops out like a flick-knife. He said $750 to replace that key.

This was also my thinking in going for the Blade Electron. I really want an economical car, one I have some control over, one I can ignore, until it gives me trouble (if I want to).

This is my plan. Let's see what life does with it.
Last edited by whimpurinter on Sat, 18 Feb 2012, 02:35, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Johny »

IVI wrote:I see that as $5,000 you'd/we'd -never- have to pay, eg, in BetterPlace.com's (or any battery-swapping competitor's) business model.

I think Aussies are just going to open their minds to batt.swap.stations.
Who are you IVI? Your posts tend to be biased towards Better Place marketing hype. Not sure why you think swaying AEVA forum contributors will help the cause.
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Post by Johny »

bladecar wrote:New keys for an Avalon $110 each, another 100 to program them. A modern nissan (I think it was), the owner showed me the key, pops out like a flick-knife. He said $750 to replace that key.
By contrast, I had 2 new keys cut for the Vogue (1965) and both front door locks changed to be keyed alike the ignition (long story) for $30, two weeks ago. Just another tidbit of useless information...
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Post by Simon »

bladecar wrote:

I noticed your comment about jailbreaking. Can you tell me more about this aspect in regard to the Fluence?


Hi bladecar.
It was meant to be a joke comparing the Better Place Fluence to a mobile phone that is locked to one network with a costly monthly subscription.
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Post by antiscab »

tdean wrote:Would your batteries last 22 years with the same performance? (100mph analogy)
There was the assumption you would be replacing batteries at 10 years.

You probably would still have the same performance after 22 years, although you may be on your 3rd set of batteries by then, if battery service life hasn't improved at all.

Johny wrote: Do you really think you will be able to buy a replacement 16kwh or 24kwh pack in 2022 for $5K?


Given that you can buy a 16kwh pack now for $8000 retail or $5000 wholesale, yes thats probably a fairly conservative assumption.

Especially if that $5000 is in 2012 dollars (as in inflation compensated)

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Post by antiscab »

Johny wrote:
bladecar wrote:New keys for an Avalon $110 each, another 100 to program them. A modern nissan (I think it was), the owner showed me the key, pops out like a flick-knife. He said $750 to replace that key.
By contrast, I had 2 new keys cut for the Vogue (1965) and both front door locks changed to be keyed alike the ignition (long story) for $30, two weeks ago.


I had to get a new key done at the dealer for my 2005 holden Astra
lost the last one good key and the spare had a broken transponder, so had to get it tilt trayed there aswell

new key cost $350

My NHW10 Prius is a grey import, and I haven't found anyone that can make me a spare key for it :(

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Post by whimpurinter »

So, probably at this point, I should be changing the topic, but I'm not that advanced. So...

This sort of brings up the question of...Which Car?

Which car to convert, and which car to buy.

It was pointed out to me the other night by a converted-car owner that he thought he had made an error in converting a relatively old honda.

He said that he was holding a new car part and that he would not fit that part until the current part was totally unusable because he could no longer source that part.

I previously surmised that the Japanese had beaten the Americans, in one way, by making superior cars which were very reliable and therefore gave the impression that you shouldn't buy anything else since you would be unlikely to be left by the side of the road and the yank stuff cost a fortune to run through their servicing costs.

As well as that, it now seems that these security devices, as well as different parts according to make and model, have a very high price on them, which you particularly notice around the 10 year mark, which has the effect of either propping up the manufacturers, or enticing us to buy a new vehicle.

I bought 2 plastic clips which hold a thin shroud to another piece of plastic and the salesman apologised that they cost $4 ea. I was pleasantly surprised, having bought plastic/rubber parts for motorcycles over the years. They too, keep themselves going with this income stream. All these parts being specialised, you either like it, or lump it.


So, I'm thinking, the key reason, after narrowing down a vehicle type, to choose either a bought-one, or a convertible-one, may probably be based on expected parts availability and likely cost, on into the future.


Maybe choose a vehicle, in particular, which appears to share parts with another or other vehicles (if that exists anymore).
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Post by AMPrentice »

Although not particularly aerodynamic even though thats not a problem when most commutes you spend most of your time at or below 60kmhr, I think most van designs have longer design lives so more parts available but also built with more strength than similarly heavy hatches and sedans.
They allow better battery locations/storage and if sold as registered commercial EVs then you dont need to own a successful business that doesnt lose money to own one indefinitely.
Alot of retired van models are still produced in poor countries where numbers in a vehicle are important so they assure longevity.
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Post by Jeff Owen »

bladecar wrote:

It was pointed out to me the other night by a converted-car owner that he thought he had made an error in converting a relatively old honda.

He said that he was holding a new car part and that he would not fit that part until the current part was totally unusable because he could no longer source that part..


As the owner mentioned above, I would like to point out that I in no way think I made an error in converting my 1984 Honda City. The car was converted over 15 years ago, has travelled approximately 93,000 km as an EV, and is consistently racking up almost 12,000 km per year. I converted the Honda City because I, somewhat perversely, like the Honda City. The point I was making at the meeting was that I think it is a mistake to select a car for conversion based on it being cheap due to age or manufacturer. I believe that, due to the cost of conversion, the donor car should be a car you like and will want to keep for a long time.

As far as spare parts go, my car is 28 years old. New parts are not available and secondhand parts are hard to find due to the car being only imported in small numbers.      
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Post by whimpurinter »

Hi Jeff,

Apologies to you if I gave an incorrect impression (I hoped I wasn't putting my foot in it when I wrote that).

Your car looks like a goodie to me.

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Post by AMPrentice »

Jeff Owen wrote:
bladecar wrote:

It was pointed out to me the other night by a converted-car owner that he thought he had made an error in converting a relatively old honda.

He said that he was holding a new car part and that he would not fit that part until the current part was totally unusable because he could no longer source that part..


As the owner mentioned above, I would like to point out that I in no way think I made an error in converting my 1984 Honda City. The car was converted over 15 years ago, has travelled approximately 93,000 km as an EV, and is consistently racking up almost 12,000 km per year. I converted the Honda City because I, somewhat perversely, like the Honda City. The point I was making at the meeting was that I think it is a mistake to select a car for conversion based on it being cheap due to age or manufacturer. I believe that, due to the cost of conversion, the donor car should be a car you like and will want to keep for a long time.

As far as spare parts go, my car is 28 years old. New parts are not available and secondhand parts are hard to find due to the car being only imported in small numbers.      


I also have a perverse liking for vans but the parts issues is why I suggested vans as they are practical and have 3rd party parts manufactured everywhere.
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Post by AMPrentice »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modec

The vehicles use an 80 kW motor and an exchangeable lead-acid battery which is charged from an external charger than requires a 32amp 3-phase supply to charge the vehicle for 6 hours, it also has options for Lithium-Iron Phosphote or Sodium Nickel chloride batteries.

It has a 100-mile (160 km) range, 2 tonne payload and a 50 mph (80 km/h) top speed.


It failed in the UK but could it be successful here, india and china?

Sad how a monster like Navistar Int. which is involved in big guzzling diesel monsters ends up buying the technology after waving a carrot to them

Modec is the first electric vehicle in the N2 class to attain European Whole Vehicle Type Approval.[3] Modec has entered into a joint venture with Navistar International for North and South America. The Joint venture is named Navistar-Modec EV Alliance.[4] 2011 Following a long term decline in sales, and continued losses, Modec entered administration in March 2011 following the failure of a deal with Navistar. Navistar subsequently bought the intellectual property rights from administrators Zolfo Cooper.[5]
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Post by IVI »

Modec is interesting.

Is there any indication that early-adopters may be considering adapting
the new (research-result from MIT) "liquid metal" battery for use in EVs?
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Post by Johny »

No.
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Post by IVI »

As OVERSEAS interest seems to continue to grow in EVs,
I continue to see signs that Australia's interest has
yet to keep up.

=====================================================
Too Hard for Our City-Slickers; Rural Folks'll Do It!
=====================================================

Is anyone aware of any LOCAL (ie, Australian) initia-
tives (other than on the individual/conversion level)
to bring private investors (or some of their $$$) to-
gether, eg, for investments in:

1. making conversion to Electric - on a larger scale -
happen in AU (eg, in places where youth unemployment
is high, and local auto industries have dwindled)?

A buying group for parts, to be sold to any satellite
groups, who agree to train & hire young people to, eg,
convert classic and/or very suitable cars to Electric
could help here.

Perhaps a cooperative structure (akin to Farmers Coop-
eratives) would work, especially, if the activities it
generates were to be based in rural regions.

(This might be a good time to mention a recent Sydney-
Ideas speaker - Gunter Pauli - who's found that, when
something good (his example: highly effective schools
vs my example: highly effective places around AU, to
make EV's by converting fine & suitable petrol cars to
Electric) is happening in even a very remote place...

people will be attracted to those places, moving there
(even paying HIGHER prices for local land), & becoming
involved in the new & future-focused activities there:

+ http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/rn/podcast/ ... 3_2005.mp3

IF you can't download the podcast from the above link,
try this one, to the "Big Ideas" program's web site:

+ http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/

2. Using the mass-converted EV's to bust "Range-Anxiety"

(even in some relatively independent regional towns, to
which driving distances are well withing [half of] these
EV's range, so folks can enjoy EVs for day to day needs,
and keep another car for longer trips)

3. Who knows, perhaps some of our more resourceful rural
folks will devise ways of implementing their own versions
of battery swap stations, if just to prove the concept.

If enough of the SAME type of car get converted, the con-
version facility might take the time & trouble to add-in
the door & latching facilities needed to make their EV's
capable of battery swap's, if & when a (future) battery-
swap-station design can be developed for it & implemented
in critical places across their region(s).

Later investment (again, possibly by cooperatives) could
support battery-swap station construction; they would be
licensed as "experimental" facilities (or, hopefully, be
build -without- all the Hoo-Haw that would be required
in the City. :-)

Imagine "Rural Battery-Swap station" prototypes - powered
by wind-generators, on the same piece of conveniently-
located farmland that they're situated on... just within
view of people, who drive-in for fresh batteries.

Swap stations support the wind farms & vice versa... :-)

Backed by "we did all this ourselves" with is consistent
with the Rural Spirit of Healthy Rural Regions would sure-
ly be copied across Australia, as each community sees how
NOT waiting for a big company to come around to "sell 'em
a franchise" make more sense (and, Dollars & Cents, too!)
and involves more youth in worthwhile & enjoyable work...

Who doesn't know a lot of young rural guys, who sign-up in
a flash to be involved in a car (re-)maker in their area?

---

Well, there are lots of other steps that would follow, &
I only give you the above, as a few indicators of what
folks - who want to do more than watch it happen on TV -
can do, for their towns, children & even for Australia.

My 2.2 cents, only... :-)

Don't you think it's time YOU got involved to plan some
of this, for yourself, now...?
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Post by AMPrentice »

ariel atom like single seater as light as a bike with better stability than a bike would be successful if based on the UniSA Trev or this one

http://inhabitat.com/arcimoto-unveils-r ... n-huertas/
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