Bosch Says Electric Vehicles Won’t Become Pervas

Post by **MikeD** » Fri, 17 Jul 2009, 14:20

An intersting perspective...

Full electric power trains like battery electrics, hydrogen fuel cells, and so forth are coming, but slowly. Let’s face it: most of those on the market so far are nothing more than curiosities. The Tesla Roadster and the Aptera 2e, while they look really good and are desirable vehicles, aren’t exactly mainstream. Read more at ....

bosch article

MODERATOR EDIT: made link clickable

Post by **acmotor** » Fri, 17 Jul 2009, 17:49

Oh dear.
More industry doubt.

But then smoking doesn't cause lung cancer and digital cameras will never replace film if you believed the industry experts of the past.
And man, I bet GM regrets crushing the EV1 now !

There is nothing wrong with Bosch's future directions IMHO, just their timeline. If they are spending 4.3b (US?) on research (oil and electric), then if they spent it on EV alone they could make great advances in EVs. Too much power over our future ?
In fact, it is their own mis-directed research (IMO) that will help retard the EV. Maybe that just means that someone else will take over the tasks.
I've mumbled before that the big vehicle manufacturer's mistake is thinking they know what to do, rather than reading the writing on the wall.
After all, there are a number of big players in the vehicle industry who would rather blame morgages than their own lack of direction.

Mazda says it is not going EV, Mitsubishi says it will never build a hybrid, just go straight to BEV.

I can see Mazda's gamble.
But it is a concern. One of them will go to the wall (the one with the writing on it)

Post by **coulomb** » Fri, 17 Jul 2009, 18:40

All this doubt and delay is bad for the consumer, bad for the environment, bad for our cause.

But it is also an opportunity; it looks like small and medium scale converters don't have to be worried about being trampled by the big guys, because they're off playing a different game.

Post by **weber** » Fri, 17 Jul 2009, 19:06

At least it sounds like we've reached stage 3 of J.B.S. Haldane's 4 stages of acceptance.

"i. this is worthless nonsense,
ii. this is interesting, but perverse,
iii. this is true, but quite unimportant,
iv. I always said so."
— J.B.S. Haldane

Post by **Electrocycle** » Sat, 18 Jul 2009, 01:18

they are saying it'll take that long for EVs to become pervasive, which is probably not far off the mark.
Even if we stopped selling ICE cars now it'd take close to 10 years to get most of them off the road.

I guess it's up to us to get as many EVs on the road as possible

Post by **acmotor** » Sat, 18 Jul 2009, 03:33

Sorry, I still think it is a gross underestimation of the takeup time.
I am happy for history to be the judge.

When you have as much grey hair as me, you know how fast technology changes things. I could send you a telegram on that stop.

Perhaps fuel price doubling would change a few things ?

But yes, EV enthusiasts have to spread the word and provide example.

Post by **Peter C in Canberra** » Fri, 24 Jul 2009, 21:15

acmotor wrote: Mazda says it is not going EV, Mitsubishi says it will never build a hybrid, just go straight to BEV.

They both seem a bit odd to me. We have two cars. The recently converted small BEV and our smallish petrol station wagon that can take four of us on camping trips, out of town etc. Ideally, I would replace the petrol car with a plug-in hybrid. I would predict that families with two adults commuting and kids to run around will want a small BEV to use preferentially around town and a somewhat larger plug in hybrid with range, but often both will be used for short trips. If the latter has a good design the petrol in the tank might last for months between longer trips.