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Squiggles
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Post by Squiggles »

marcopolo wrote: (everyone remembers the Edsel).
Or the Taurus, the Nissan Cedric, there is a million of them. Car companies have made plenty of blunders over the years. If they didn't we would still be driving Model Ts!

Edit: Rotary Engines!! the list goes on Image
Last edited by Squiggles on Wed, 14 Apr 2010, 07:53, edited 1 time in total.

marcopolo
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Post by marcopolo »

juk wrote:
marcopolo wrote: Ev's also have an Achilles heel with a dependence on the mining of increasingly scarce Rare Earths for battery production.

Of the two, it is fairly evident that EV technology has the more advanced capacity to evolve beyond rare earth dependency.


Actually, Rare earths are not rare, they're popping up all over the place, Olympic dam has about 1% of them and prominent hill a little less. There's Mt Weld, Nolans Bore, Dubbo, Cummins Range, John Galt, Browns Range and that's just in australia. A large new deposit was just announced in tanzania, there's several in canada, a couple of massive deposits in greenland, then there's australia's monazite deposits, india's too, and mountain pass. Then a couple in the kola peninsula, and the fact that china currently produces 97% of the worlds rare earths.

Add to that that rare earths aren't used in any EV batteries, since they're all either lithium or lead, and it turns out you only need rare earth for the permanent magnets in the motors.

Currently 99% Neodymium carbonate runs at about 35USD a kilo, so there's nothing to fear with regards to either rare earth availability or prices as compared to your batteries prices in the short to medium term.


Yes, I stand corrected. Instead of battery, I meant magnet. I was trying to be fair to the advocates of biodiesel. The dominance of the PRC in rare earth production, and that nations eagerness to acquire a monopoly on rare earth production world wide, displays the value of these materials to post oil power generation, especially in such technologies as wind farming etc.

As to prices, I think you are quite correct. No real threat to price or availability of rare earth materials exists, despite threats by the PRC to restrict exports and divert all of its world wide mining production the PRC. Rare Earth mining has been fairly well ignored until the growth of new technologies and any attempt by PRC to monopolise production would be quickly challenged.

Still, it is a fact that Japan imports only 10% of its 10,000 tons of rare earth minerals from the PRC through official government authorised agencies, the rest is obtained through a sort of officially ignored black market.

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Post by coulomb »

marcopolo wrote: Instead of battery, I meant magnet. I was trying to be fair to the advocates of biodiesel.

If rare earth magnets become rare, then production EVs will switch from PM synchronous to either wound rotor synchronous, or much more likely, induction motors. Some EVs (e.g. Tesla Roadster) already use induction motors, which don't need rare earth magnets. Most DC motors (as used in many conversions) don't use magnets either.

I don't see a "dependence" on rare earth magnets, even if the majority of the current crop of production EVs use them.
Last edited by coulomb on Thu, 15 Apr 2010, 05:05, edited 1 time in total.
Nissan Leaf 2012 with new battery May 2019.
5650 W solar, 2xPIP-4048MS inverters, 16 kWh battery.
1.4 kW solar with 1.2 kW Latronics inverter and FIT.
160 W solar, 2.5 kWh 24 V battery for lights.
Patching PIP-4048/5048 inverter-chargers.

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Post by marcopolo »

coulomb wrote:
marcopolo wrote: Instead of battery, I meant magnet. I was trying to be fair to the advocates of biodiesel.

If rare earth magnets become rare, then production EVs will switch from PM synchronous to either wound rotor synchronous, or much more likely, induction motors. Some EVs (e.g. Tesla Roadster) already use induction motors, which don't need rare earth magnets. Most DC motors (as used in many conversions) don't use magnets either.

I don't see a "dependence" on rare earth magnets, even if the majority of the current crop of production EVs use them.


Oh, I agree! I was simply trying to put the argument that is often expressed by the biodeisel lobby.

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Post by T2 »

I, for one, don't see Toyota getting it wrong with the Prius either. They were putting out untried technology as far as the automotive sector is concerned. They were setting themselves up for enough risk with liquid cooled high power inverters. You think they should have put themselves on the line for $10k NiMH batteries also ?

Regarding motor systems :
The fact that they sold a couple of million units meant that in a few short years Toyota had to know that they would challenge the existing industrial base by becoming the largest manufacturer of AC inverter drives in the world. Outselling, in the 25Kw-125Kw segment, the total shipped by Siemens, Emerson, Yaskawa, Parker-Hannifin, Indramat, etc.

Regarding batteries :
The distinction here is that Toyota started out with a powertrain that needed a battery configured for POWER rather than ENERGY, they chose the smallest size that could reach that power (21Kw) and then hold on for at least a couple of minutes. We should remind ourselves that the Prius battery holds only 1.3Kwhrs while the average automobile 72A-hr PB-acid battery is not far behind in the energy department with its 0.9Kwhr rating. OTOH had Toyota gone for energy (16kwhr) it would have been an entirely different price segment e.g. as GM is demanding for the VOLT.

With Li-Ion you can change the electrode structure and make some strings of cells more energy proficient while ensuring the provision of enough strings of cells oriented for power within the battery pack. Of course, a 16Kwhr capacity gives many choices for how fast or how far.
Since Nissan's Leaf is the topic here, I can say that it's getting lots of support here in North America. You can sign up for $99 on their website. I don't have the figures but I heard that in the 4 months the site has been up it has had three times the takers that the Volt has been able to manage in two whole years.
With the Leaf announcement it will be interesting to see if that softens demand for the VOLT. Whether most of those deposits do in fact firm up into true orders, GM will soon find out.

The Nissan Leaf, being a pure electric,will naturally come in at a lower price point. On that it has to be said that : The right technology is always the affordable technology.
People may have said they want PHEVs, but they may sing another tune when the reality of ponying up for the extra $10k premium comes due.     
Both vehicles are eligible for govt stimulus spending and we are now hearing that with the financial problems of Greece likely to spread futher, warnings are going out for all govts to pull back on their spending - particularly stimulus spending.
T2

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Post by marcopolo »

T2 wrote: I, for one, don't see Toyota getting it wrong with the Prius either. They were putting out untried technology as far as the automotive sector is concerned. They were setting themselves up for enough risk with liquid cooled high power inverters. You think they should have put themselves on the line for $10k NiMH batteries also ?

Regarding motor systems :
The fact that they sold a couple of million units meant that in a few short years Toyota had to know that they would challenge the existing industrial base by becoming the largest manufacturer of AC inverter drives in the world. Outselling, in the 25Kw-125Kw segment, the total shipped by Siemens, Emerson, Yaskawa, Parker-Hannifin, Indramat, etc.

Regarding batteries :
The distinction here is that Toyota started out with a powertrain that needed a battery configured for POWER rather than ENERGY, they chose the smallest size that could reach that power (21Kw) and then hold on for at least a couple of minutes. We should remind ourselves that the Prius battery holds only 1.3Kwhrs while the average automobile 72A-hr PB-acid battery is not far behind in the energy department with its 0.9Kwhr rating. OTOH had Toyota gone for energy (16kwhr) it would have been an entirely different price segment e.g. as GM is demanding for the VOLT.

With Li-Ion you can change the electrode structure and make some strings of cells more energy proficient while ensuring the provision of enough strings of cells oriented for power within the battery pack. Of course, a 16Kwhr capacity gives many choices for how fast or how far.
Since Nissan's Leaf is the topic here, I can say that it's getting lots of support here in North America. You can sign up for $99 on their website. I don't have the figures but I heard that in the 4 months the site has been up it has had three times the takers that the Volt has been able to manage in two whole years.
With the Leaf announcement it will be interesting to see if that softens demand for the VOLT. Whether most of those deposits do in fact firm up into true orders, GM will soon find out.

The Nissan Leaf, being a pure electric,will naturally come in at a lower price point. On that it has to be said that : The right technology is always the affordable technology.
People may have said they want PHEVs, but they may sing another tune when the reality of ponying up for the extra $10k premium comes due.     
Both vehicles are eligible for govt stimulus spending and we are now hearing that with the financial problems of Greece likely to spread futher, warnings are going out for all govts to pull back on their spending - particularly stimulus spending.


Yes indeed, it'll be very interesting to see if the first generation of pure EV's will detract from the sales of such vehicle as the VOLT, Prius etc, in any significant numbers, without government subsidies.

I suspect that the effect will be the same as Australia.

Australia produced the first modern functioning,production quality EV private automobile, The Blade Electron. But without subsidies it has languished. The small Electron is the equal to iMev and in many ways superior, but without subsidies, the Blade remains a curiosity, and only survives on exports to NZ.

I believe given the present economic uncertainties, the next big break for EV's will come from the development of either Lithium-air, or Zinc-air technology, or the Ford battery development incorporating a very cheap annual battery replacement/service scheme.

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