Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

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jonescg
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Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by jonescg »

I've been looking at comparing my Ioniq to an equivalent ICE car, and comparing the cost of purchase, registration, maintenance and fuel. Also, given the interest in road user charging, what proportion of my expenses are being creamed by state and federal governments. It's a bit of a work in progress so expect a few edits and changes.

I came up with the following numbers - critique is welcome as I plan on turning this into an article for the website and part of our regional EV tours presentations.

Ioniq / Elantra
Drive away price: $50,000 / $26,490 (Perth metro pricing)
GST on the above: $4,190 / $2,100 (Invoice values)
Stamp Duty (WA): $3,110 / $786 (DoT calculator)
Rego (WA): $361 / $321 (DoT calculator - indexed 2% annually)
Annual service: $160 / $283 (Cars Guide)
Economy: 12 kWh/100 km / 7 l/100 km (Cars Guide)
Fuel cost: $0.28/kWh (A1) / $1.15/l (Unleaded - not indexed as price seems fairly stable)
Annual km: 20,000 km / 20,000 km (more than average for Australia)

So basically the EV is twice the cost of the ICE, and as a result pays far more tax and duty upfront. The running costs of the EV are lower, but even if the A1 tarrif was reduced to zero for solar homes, you still only break even at 15 years of service. These numbers aren't perfect, but pretty close I think. So when you plot them out, it's not looking attractive for the EV.
Ioniq Elantra comparison graph.JPG
Ioniq Elantra comparison graph.JPG (35.35 KiB) Viewed 328 times
I also included the proportion of funds taken by state and federal governments in the form of GST, stamp duty and fuel excise in the case of the Elantra.
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by brendon_m »

Any difference in insurance costs?
And with services/maintenance costs over those kilometres you are going to need a couple of major services. You could try calling a dealer and asking for prices on all scheduled services for both cars.
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by Bryce »

Hi all - re service costs for the EV, my Kona is the same price for all services - $165 12 month/15,000km intervals. There are no 'major services' as such according to the service schedule. I guess the Ioniq is the same. No oils, no plugs, no oil or air filters, no timing belts, much reduced brake pad or disc replacements (if at all). Tyres occasionally.
That will start tilting the TCO towards an earlier parity with ICE.

I do wonder about coolant, gear oil and brake fluid though.
Looking a bit deeper (page 7-8 in the owner manual): service schedule shows coolant as 10 years (and 2 yearly after that). Reduction gear fluid every 10 years. Brake fluid is listed as just inspect, never change ... (Hmmm. They must be assuming the brakes do absolutely no work! Still don't like the idea of never changing it though!! ...)
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Last edited by Bryce on Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 12:06, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by 4Springs »

I did some back of the envelope numbers for the Kona, but not as detailed as yours. I like your emphasis on what tax is taken, I think that would make a good basis for an article. For our 35,000 annual kilometres the break-even was about 7 years. Our electricity was priced at 9c/kWh though, which is the local feed-in tariff. The assumption was that I'm charging 100% on home-produced solar, so I used the feed-in tariff as a price per kWh since I'd be missing out on that income. Kona is nice for a comparison vehicle, since petrol and electric versions are sold.
I'd like to put these calculations in an interactive display of some kind, to take with us when we display at shows etc. I'm imagining talking to someone, asking them what their annual mileage is, and doing some comparative figures based on different electricity tariffs and different fuel prices. I have not come up with anything yet though, just a pipe dream.
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by smithy2167 »

Bryce wrote: Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 06:05 ... my Kona is the same price for all services - $165 12 month/15,000km intervals. There are no 'major services' as such according to the service schedule. ... No oils, no plugs, no oil or air filters, no timing belts, much reduced brake pad or disc replacements (if at all). Tyres occasionally. ... coolant as 10 years ... Reduction gear fluid every 10 years. Brake fluid is listed as just inspect, never change ... (Hmmm ...)
I wonder if it's like the fixed-price service "guarantees" for other vehicles. Fixed price for everything, except the other things that they find ...

And yes, hmm indeed for the brake fluid. Being hygroscopic, it's tends to degrade over time anyway. I'd suggest at least every 10 years for that.

And then there's the dreaded 12V lead-acid "accessories" battery which I presume the Kona has. Factor in 3-5 year replacement cycle for that.
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by jonescg »

Well even when I set the electricity price to zero the Ioniq and Elantra break even at 14 years.
It really just highlights the impact such a high upfront cost has on the economics of EVs.
We bought our EV cause we just wanted one. And the low running costs are just a bonus. But to a sceptical punter, $24,000 buys a lot of fuel.
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by brunohill »

That extra GST and stamp duty pays for a lot of road user tax. Perhaps non smokers should pay more tax than smokers to allow for the loss in revenue. That would really be a good incentive to make you give them up.
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by Chuq »

Excellent analysis of the data @jonescg!

Worth noting that stamp duty applies when selling second hand, so assuming each car was sold when it was 7.5 years old and again when it was 15 years old, it would be interesting to see how that would impact this. I guess you'd need data on second hand vehicle prices at 7.5/15 years which may be hard to predict for the Ioniq.
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by dgh853 »

The EV Council have provided a similar analysis in their recent report by EY at https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/w ... -Value.pdf.

Oddly, the larger the differential in price, the better for Government revenue due to higher GST and stamp duty on purchase. As the differential lowers, Government revenue breakeven point occurs earlier but only if we exclude externalities such as health costs from pollution etc (which we should not do).

Key thing for EV manufacturers (and Governments) is to get the price differential between petrol and EV equivalents down to drive sales. Currently Tesla is the only EV manufacturer in Australia where the equivalent petrol car in performance and specifications is a similar purchase price e.g. BMW 3 series v Model 3 SR+ at $72,000.

I struggle with the idea that new Hyundai EVs are $20-$25,000 more expensive than their petrol equivalent. Clearly, few consumers can justify that additional expense. If it was $10-15k and the difference recouped in <10 years then we'd see the uptake boom like we've had in solar. Second hand EVs with $10K off the purchase price are getting snapped up very quickly as the economics versus petrol works a lot better. I recently bought a Kona Elite with only 4,000km on the clock for $50K and only a $12k premium over the new Petrol Elite model.

Maybe the new MG ZS EV which is only $17,500 more than the petrol ZS will start the trend to reduce that differential. At $43,990 driveaway, it certainly makes the $57,600 price of the Ioniq Electric Premium look way too expensive. Hopefully we'll see Hyundai reduce their prices now there's more competitive pressure.
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by Rusdy »

Thanks Chris!

The message I'm getting is, if one wants to save money, don't get a car... :)
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by sleeperpservice »

Nice analysis there.

The only thing I'd change is the Elantra price for similar spec levels to $28490, i.e. Active with smart sense safety pack. It won't change the metrics much though.

I know its a cost comparison against what the premium an EV is over an ICE car but I've been 'justifying' against a mid range Corolla Hybrid spec which is around $35k.

Fuel is also pretty tricky. Is the price going to crash as the world moves away in 10-15 years or will it become scarce and skyrocket?
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by Bryce »

Re fossil fuel prices - my tuppence worth is I suspect they will skyrocket sometime after 2030 as the economy of scale that the mass fossil fuel provision system relies on falls away.
i.e. transport, refinery and fuel station fixed costs will remain the same - but will still need to be spread over an exponentially falling sales volume, so the fixed cost component of the per litre price will go ever up ... resulting in a death-spiral of increasing ICE running costs pushing people more and more into EVs. (South Australia excluded of course ;-) )
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by coulomb »

Bryce wrote: Mon, 16 Nov 2020, 08:35 my tuppence worth is I suspect they will skyrocket sometime after 2030...
My penny's worth is I suspect the price will fall. The fixed cost of stations and transport will fall as petrol stations close. We had a lot of petrol stations close with the market meddling by the supermarkets, but others opened up even as the supermarkets exited with the tail between their legs. [ Edit: So, I believe that the market will adjust the number of petrol stations and refineries to the dwindling demand. ] Yes, there is a lot of infrastructure there, stranded assets, but my guess is that it will be the retailers and the oil companies that pay the price, not the consumer, at least not as much. The oil companies will have to compete harder and harder for market share to keep their assets running, until they have to close refineries one by one. Each refinery closure will cause a huge step increase in the price in the price of fossil fuels, but the electrification will continue the downward pressure on fuel prices. Petrol station closures won't affect the price until the numbers are very small.

I would not want to be an oil company or a petrol station owner.

It will be interesting to find what the eventual steady state is. Will there be a handful of petrol stations in each capital city for the owners of classic cars (with special permission to run them on special occasions)? Or will there be a hard core of resisters (people, not electronic components) or that have a special need? Perhaps agricultural equipment will be the last to get converted, but then how does a smallish number of outlets cater to widely dispersed users? Perhaps autonomous electric fuel trucks will deliver the diesel to the farms, and the farms have to have large tanks and pumps. And of course deliver aviation fuel to the airports, assuming that the aviation industry survives global Covid.

Will roads become very expensive, as they no longer have much of the supply of largely unwanted residue of oil refinery? Maybe they'll still refine oil for the bitumen, as the bitumen won't be burned and hence won't generate carbon dioxide (assuming a clean energy source for the actual refinery). But then what to do with all the liquids (that aren't used for aviation, until electric aviation catches up). It will be a different world, one way or the other.

Edit: anyone else care to give their ha'penny's worth? :)

[ Edit: spelling of "resister" ]
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by EVdownUnder »

dgh853 wrote: Sun, 15 Nov 2020, 21:05 Key thing for EV manufacturers (and Governments) is to get the price differential between petrol and EV equivalents down to drive sales. Currently Tesla is the only EV manufacturer in Australia where the equivalent petrol car in performance and specifications is a similar purchase price e.g. BMW 3 series v Model 3 SR+ at $72,000.
I agree with your reasoning, but struggle to understand why people are trying to compare the Kona EV with the ICE Kona.
The shape is the only thing they have in common. To 80km/h, I have given a hard time to Golf GTI and big V8s. Although I have never tried the ICE Kona, I’m pretty sure it can’t do that and it would probably be hard to think over the noise if trying.
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by jonescg »

The EV Kona ($64k) is compared to the ICE Kona ($32k) because they are actually a direct comparison. It's literally the same lifestyle car with a different drivetrain.
The Ioniq ($50k) is literally the electric version of the Elantra ($26k)
The Zoe ($50k) was basically an electric Clio ($23k).

Granted in all these cases the EV is a far nicer car (electric is just like that) but if you were to find an equivalent Hyundai worth $64k you'd probably get a Genesis.

Unlike Tesla where you have to make a comparison to a BMW 3 series, these cars exist in both petrol and electric versions, and sadly, the electric version costs twice as much.
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by Chuq »

jonescg wrote: Mon, 16 Nov 2020, 20:48 Granted in all these cases the EV is a far nicer car (electric is just like that)
Slightly veering off topic, but I bring this up whenever anyone talks about the "payback period" for buying EV over ICE. What's their "payback period" for a nicer couch, or a bigger TV? With the EV, you get a quieter ride, more comfortable, better acceleration, sometimes more storage space. That's before you take into account any cost savings related benefits like fuelling, servicing, etc, and also before taking into account environmental benefits. I haven't even included features that are unique to specific models (e.g. Tesla).

Back on topic! Is it worth comparing a straight petrol hybrid here as well (where such a model exists)? Noting that they have been the primary cause of the decline in fuel excise revenue over the past 20 years but never get any of the media attention.
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by jonescg »

Indeed. If your hybrid sips 3l/100km you are paying a quarter of the excise for all of the roads, and you avoid the EV tax...
Almost like it would be easier to apply the RUC to all vehicles.
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by 4Springs »

EVdownUnder wrote: Mon, 16 Nov 2020, 20:33 I agree with your reasoning, but struggle to understand why people are trying to compare the Kona EV with the ICE Kona.
The shape is the only thing they have in common. To 80km/h, I have given a hard time to Golf GTI and big V8s. Although I have never tried the ICE Kona, I’m pretty sure it can’t do that and it would probably be hard to think over the noise if trying.
I also have not driven a petrol Kona, but apparently the highest spec one is slightly quicker than the electric.
I read this in a review somewhere between the two, but can't find it now. They said that the petrol one was quicker, but the electric one felt quicker.
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by bladecar »

jonescg said:
"The EV Kona ($64k) is compared to the ICE Kona ($32k) because they are actually a direct comparison. It's literally the same lifestyle car with a different drivetrain.
The Ioniq ($50k) is literally the electric version of the Elantra ($26k)
The Zoe ($50k) was basically an electric Clio ($23k)."

Thank you for that jonescg :) You have clarified in my mind what space these different cars occupy. Much easier to understand the discussion around them.
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by Bryce »

Hi all - a minor point of order: the Zoe is in a similar segment to the Clio and built by the same manufacturer, but it is not Clio based. The Zoe is a different platform and slightly longer, and the panels are different. They do look similar - but are related in the same way as the 80's Holdens all looked the same - be it a Gemini, Camira or Commodore at the time. (From a distance, it used to be hard to pick them - till you saw the oil smoke from the Camira tailpipe ;-) )
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by jonescg »

As I always say - the comparison is between the car you want and the car you need...
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by Bryce »

Yep-that was my hard choice! I wanted a Model 3, but the Kona was the better car by a mile for what I needed. Don't regret it though it took a lot of head fighting heart to do it. Might convert an MGB one day to assuage my desire for something a bit lower and sporty... (still kept my Clio Sport Cup as a result, but the vibration, noise and pollution from it become ever more noticeable to me in comparison ... on the rare ocassions I take it out now).
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by brunohill »

jonescg wrote: Tue, 17 Nov 2020, 06:57 Indeed. If your hybrid sips 3l/100km you are paying a quarter of the excise for all of the roads, and you avoid the EV tax...
Almost like it would be easier to apply the RUC to all vehicles.
I wonder if I fitted a 2 stroke whipper snipper motor (that never gets used) to the Kona EV ... ...
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by Bryce »

2 stroke whipper snipper motor addition? That's a downgrade: is what my Clio Sport Cup now feels like to me ;-)
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Re: Life Cost of EVs and the government take...

Post by Chuq »

Are you ready to share the graph further @jonescg ? Paul Maric's article he insists its not a reasonable comparison since the up-front taxes are paid only once. https://www.carexpert.com.au/opinion/wh ... are-of-tax
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