Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

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Clay Tortoise
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Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

Post by Clay Tortoise »

Great article in the Guardian today.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ars-fall-8

Although uptake of EV's is speeding up in Australia (0.6% of new sales), it's still abhorrently low compared to Europe (3.8%) and China (4.7%). I'm sure many of you know this, I certainly feel it when trying to order parts. The market is just too damn small!

What can we do as a community to speed this up further?
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brendon_m
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Re: Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

Post by brendon_m »

Bums in seats. Getting people in an EV and explaining the pros and how a lot of the cons are irrelevant. So more events like electrikarna and presence at community fairs and shows etc
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Re: Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

Post by HuffnPuff »

I watch the roads with interest. So far it’s more common to see a big American pickup than an electric car! But at least there are a few more getting around. Seem plenty of Tesla’s, a few leafs, a couple of i3 and Imiev and one ioniq. Have yet to see a Kona in the wild. The only electric vehicles I’ve seen out of town have been Tesla

Good to see the numbers are up though.
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Re: Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

Post by Clay Tortoise »

What really grinds my gears (pun intended) is when I see the petrol or diesel versions of BEV platforms. Heaps of petrol Hyundai Konas and Jag F Paces getting around down here in the inner suburbs of Melbourne, I seriously doubt they're doing 350km a day - range anxiety can't be the motivator.
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Re: Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

Post by wovenrovings »

I noticed the same with the Jaguar F Paces in rockhampton. Wondered what the reason was. One I did find is that the F Pace is half the price of the I Pace. $59k vs $120k+.
Similar story with the Kona , $23k vs $60+ made worse but hyundai only offering the electric in high trim levels. Annoys the hell out of me.
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Re: Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

Post by mikedufty »

Getting ever closer to the point where it won't be reasonable to round down to 0%
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Re: Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

Post by boars »

Purely price. I'd have one if it wasn't so steep. Picking up a Kona for 60k feels like all sorts of stupid to me.

Having taken a Tesla for a test drive though, I really want one and will probably get one in 2-3 year period depending on a few factors, affordability being a key component.

Nothing inspired me more to get an electric car besides taking one for a spin. I knew I'd enjoy it based on my limited electric experience (owned a Stealth bomber b52 electric bike) but the test drive surpassed my expectations. My fiancee who had zero desire prior to our test-drive was an instant convert after getting behind the wheel.

Now we both quietly lust after a model x we cannot justify the $$ for. Hoping the CT is a good, cheap (relatively speaking!!), ugly alternative.

There's a lot of interest but the gap between ice and electric versions is still far too big for comparable quality of vehicles. Aka Kona ice vs electric. A 60/70k Kona doesn't feel/look like something worth that much. You don't even get the benefit of a frunk :/

If it was 30-40k it would have more of a hope in hell.

Tesla has the advantage that they don't have an ice version of their cars so you don't end up looking at the other version and go: is electric really worth $30+40k more? Especially when people are getting unreasonable range anxiety from the media's non stop fud.

Want to get another electric on the road? Fund me a Tesla and I'll sell my ice tomorrow :D

Anyway, I recommend encouraging people to take a Tesla x or something for a test drive all the time. Sales people aren't pushy and it's essentially their version of marketing when you start rabbiting on to your friends and family after doing so.

Encourage your local workplace to offer chargers too if you can.
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Re: Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

Post by dgh853 »

It's always a challenge to sell a product that has high upfront costs and lower running costs. The Oz population can do it when buying a home (because they appreciate) but not for vehicles.

The average passenger EV will save their owners over $20K in fuel over their lifetime but few people will factor that into their purchase. And unfortunately when you do, some EVs still don't make for good value e.g. BMW i3, Jaguar i-Pace. People will pay more upfront for ongoing savings but they want a payback period of 5 years. So they sit and wait on the sidelines because they have been told EVs will get cheaper.

But EV pricing from mainstream brands has been going up, not down e.g. Current BMW i3, Hyundai Ioniq and Nissan Leaf are all more expensive than previous models. The original Leaf could be purchased for $39K driveaway.

What to do then? Go and buy a used Outlander PHEVs for under $30K (or a Leaf for <$20k as a second around town car) or save up and get an awesome EV.

We see this "waiting" in batteries where people won't buy because the payback period is >10 years. Compare that to solar where the payback is 5 years and the takeup is pretty rapid at close to 2.5M households nationwide.

The EVs that will sell well are the ones that offer comparable or better value to a petrol vehicle. The Tesla Model 3 is ~$72k driveaway. It's better than a BMW 3 series costing the same or more money and you get the $20k fuel saving and advanced technology that BMW doesn't offer from AutoPilot, free 4G streaming music and videos, sentry mode, remote heating and cooling, OTA updates, highest safety etc.

The Kona, Ioniq, Leaf, MG ZS EV are comparable to a similar spec'd vehicle at $20-25k less. Unfortunately, as few people discount the upfront price for the EV savings and better performance, sales of these models are lacklustre compared to the Model 3 even though they are $10-$25k less expensive. Each of the Kona, Ioniq, Leaf and MG ZS EV offers a better driving experience than their comparable petrol vehicle but that 15+ year payback period isn't acceptable to the public.

To my mind it's no coincidence that the two highest selling EVs in Australia - the Tesla Model 3 and Outlander PHEV - are the ones that have the lowest price difference to the comparable petrol vehicle. The Tesla Model 3 is already at (or under) price parity with ICE equivalents with the Outlander PHEV about $10K more (i.e. 10 year payback period). Looks like the heavy lifting of increasing Australian EV sales will be with Tesla and its Model 3 and Y for the next couple of years.

Let's hope that Hyundai and Nissan can sharpen up pricing and features on the Kona, Ioniq and Leaf to entice mainstream buyers and that VW can get the IDs delivered here. Some Government assistance would help a lot to bump up sales but with vested interests influencing the Federal and State Governments that's pretty unlikely. Sad to say but it looks like Australia will continue to trail the rest of the world in EV adoption for the 2020s as well. Sad for Australians because they don't truly know what they're missing out on - driving an EV is awesome!
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Re: Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

Post by jonescg »

Agree with most of that Dave. For as long as an equivalent ICE is $20k cheaper, EV sales will struggle. $20k buys a lot of fuel. It's also not helping that the legacy automakers are using existing ICE chassis to electrify their fleet because the shopper's immediate instinct is to compare it to the equivalent ICE, and the numbers look terrible. This was my decision process when buying the 2020 Ioniq (should arrive in the next 2 months):

I need a car, with 5 seats, that runs on electricity and affords ~250 km to a charge, and is capable of being fast charged.

This left me with all the Teslas, both the Kona EV and the Ioniq, maybe the Leaf 2.0 and of course all the big luxury car-maker's EV options.

My next filter was was price - under $50k. This left the Ioniq and the Leaf.

And the Ioniq has a thermally managed battery. So I picked that one.



$49990 is still an absolute shirt-load of money for a four-wheeled tin-top, but it will be our first and last new car we ever buy. Plus I have a refinery on my roof, so the power is as good as free. IMO the Ioniq needs to get down to $40k drive away and it will be popular.
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Re: Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

Post by dgh853 »

Can't fault your logic on getting the Ioniq Chris - it's the pick of the $50k crop.

A $40K Ioniq would be awesome and its price and practicality would help it sell similar volumes to the Model 3. Hyundai should bring back the old Ioniq with the smaller and faster charging battery, cut some costs/features here and there to get it to that $40k price point. Automakers need to get more (i.e. faster charging) out of smaller batteries. Smaller batteries bring the price down. This constant push for more range by Nissan, Hyundai, Renault isn't making their cars any more affordable, in fact it's the opposite. They need to stop appeasing the range god - in the real world there is a huge segment of the market where cars are rarely or never driven more than 150km in a day. Perfect for EVs.

Up-specing the trim levels in EVs isn't helping either. I'm sure the Kona could be $50k if Hyundai gave it the same limited features as the $25k model!
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Re: Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

Post by boars »

The other thing I forgot to mention is if you ever have to lug around 2 big teenagers (over 6 foot in my case), the small cars are just not practical.

The backs seats in half of these cars are almost just for show when you're tall.
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Re: Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

Post by francisco.shi »

I think car makers are making as much as they can from the electrics. I don't believe an electric drive train costs that much more than the ice drive train. Batteries have come down significantly. I am sure the car manufacturers can already get the cost of the cells close to the magic $100/kwh.
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Re: Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

Post by brendon_m »

The kona is 64kwh. Even at double the magic $100kwh that's still only $12800 in battery cost.
The EV kona is $65k and the ICE kona can be had for $25k but if you want to compare apples to apples the highlander kona with an ICE is $40k.
Add $15k for battery and it's still going to be $10k less than hyundai are asking. (assuming the cost of the EV electrics is the same as the engine, exhaust, fuel system etc).
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Re: Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

Post by francisco.shi »

My guess is that an electric drive train excluding the battery is considerably cheaper than an ICE drive train (engine + transmission + exhaust etc) so it seems the price we are paying is the price of the original ICE car + the price of all the electrics. No discount for not having the ICE.
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Re: Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

Post by jeffthewalker »

I am waiting for the price of the VW once they are (first other than Tesla) producing at scale. Designing a car and production line for 200,000 cars per year gets a much smaller cost of components and final car than a production run of 20,000 per year. Also the EV is usually a superior trim to the compared ICE.
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Re: Aussie electric vehicle sales triple in 2019

Post by Clay Tortoise »

I suspect many manufacturers are inflating the price of their EV models in an effort to manage demand, either because they don't have the supply chain security or they are trying to slow the transition and prolong the service life of their ICE manufacturing infrastructure. I know this is definitely the case with Honda, understandable considering their entire business is optimised for churning out thousands of petrol engines a day.
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